Original post can be found here!

We are now at the half-way point of what has been a most surprising season of footy.

Who would have thought the Dockers would go from minor premiers in 2015 to the worst start from a minor premier in the history of the AFL?

Another question that has been in my mind is based on ladder positions after round 11 - how “set” is the ladder? If my team is currently inside of the top eight what are the chances they will stay?

If they are fifth to eighth what are the chances they will push on and attain a double-chance? If my team is outside the eight, what are the chances of a late run into finals footy like the Tigers in 2014.

Should I be worried if my team is sitting in the top four, what are the chances that we will slip out and lose the double chance?

The news is great if you are a Roos supporter. Only Port, in 2014, has gone from first to not securing the double-chance and only four times since 1996 have the team that was first after 11 rounds not secured two home finals.

The news isn’t too shabby if you are a Swans supporter either, with only Melbourne in 2004 and 2005, falling from second to not secure the double-chance. However, Swans supporters with very short memories will remember that last year they fell from second to fourth costing themselves two home finals and possibly a grand final.

Being an Eagles supporter isn’t terribly great - the best a team has done from seventh is third with only two other teams securing a double-chance from seventh at this point of the season since 1996.

For the Giant new kids on the block the news is surprisingly much better. Six teams have gone from sixth to securing a double chance, with the best being the 2012 Hawks who went from 6th to 1st and then on to losing one of the best grand finals in recent years.

The news isn’t good if you are outside the eight, especially if you are below 13th - only the 13th placed Tigers of 2014 played finals.

The news also isn’t great if you are only as low as ninth, with only five teams since 1996 pushing their way from ninth after round 11 into the finals.

The best ninth to finals group were the 2008 Saints who the Hawks beat by nine goals in a preliminary final.